Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Season 5 Preview


So the Knicks are entering the 5th season.  Our win totals for the four previous years looks like this:

Seasons

Sn

W-L Pct







MVP Outcome
1

59-23 0.720







Artis Gilmore Lost Championship
2

59-23 0.720







Bob Cousy Won Championship
3

52-30 0.634







Bob Cousy   Lost Quarter Finals

  4    56-26  0.683         Wilt Chamberlain     Lost Semi Finals




















I guess that's a pretty healthy 69% win rate over the four years.  My own take is that the years of ANY team winning that many from here on in are actually quite low.  I think 60 wins after the initial burst is probably going to take an unusually large trade - our aim this year and for the future is to hit 50-59 wins... and to compete for the title (every year).

Our roster:
Name                                                                                                                     Position                                  UBA Per Min               UBA PER                Games

Wilt Chamberlain C .9892 31.1 82
Rudy Tomjanovich PF/C .5157 20.6 81
Derrick Coleman PF/C .6184 19.1 56
David West PF .5800 19.4 77
Jack Sikma PF/C .6900 20.3 82
Shareef Abdur-Rahim SF/PF .5846 19.3 82
Tyreke Evans SF .5627 18.6 72
Jose Calderon PG .5597 20.5 82
Warren Jabali PG/SG .5294 19.0 80
Walt Hazzard PG .4202 16.2 80
Reggie Theus PG/SG .5200 20.8 82
Baron Davis PG/SG .5954 20.7 67
John Lucas PG .4238 15.3 80
Thaddeus Young SF/PF 13.9 67

If you want that in a depth chart it's essentially something like this:

PG: Baron, Calderon, Jabali, Lucas, Hazzard
SG: Jabali, Theus, Davis
SF:  Shareef, Evans, Young
PF:  Sikma, Coleman, West, Tomjanovich, Young
C:    Chamberlain, Coleman, Tomjanovich

Hazzard and Lucas are just here for the show this year and they both have some good times ahead where they will play.. but not this year.

In:
Jack Sikma - our original pick in the 5th round of season 1 is a very welcome addition and will be a nice force alongside Wilt.
Reggie Theus - a throw-in for the trade but still a nice combo guard this year who may start at SG
Thaddeus Young - a surprise throw-out in my books... third stringer this year but next year a key backup at SF and I'm thinking breakout year in real NBA this year with a little luck :)
David West - I like West, not a game changer but a very solid F backup I can throw in anytime

Out:
Gus Williams - man, I wanted to hang on to this fierce little guard, but this is a big man's league and I wanted Sikma more
Dan Roundfield - a really solid backup guy but my needs were for a starter here
Marques Haynes - a big drop off from last year Haynes was a luxury I didn't need so was sent away for West

Significant Up:
Sikma is a massive leap up this year to second tier star.
Baron Davis explodes onto the scene.
Warren Jabali is at starter level after being a useful backup before.
Calderon is a great backup and part-time starter at PG this year.

Significant Down:
Rudy T is an also-ran this year rather than the stud he was last year.  Good news is he's back next year and in this year I can still throw him in as he's super efficient still if not the impact player he was.  I've dangled him as trade bait and he may not last the season if I need additional fire power :)

Bold Prediction:  56 Wins and a divisional crown won on the last game of the season.  Tough playoffs and a couple of 7 games series on the way to title number two for the Big Apples.

Worst Case Scenario: 49 Wins and a first round exit at the hands of the XYZs who trade to get a monster for a pack of chips and a boutique ale.

Trades coming?  Yeah, don't bet against it :)

Coach's Corner:
Yeah I like what I've seen so far in training camp.  Wilt is the going to be the same dominant force as last year but I think we've given ourselves a better chance this year by beefing up with a greater frontline.  Sikma has looked like the perfect compliment to Wilt and I expect us to rebound better than the competition this year again, DC is happy with his backup role and will look to impact off the bench but David (West) is fighting him hard in training and is a real pleasant surprise.
Guards have got really tough this year.  Baron has really surprised everyone, he is unbelievable on both ends of the court and really fires us up.  Jabali is so tough and literally so intense on defense he scares anyone who has to go up against him!  Theus I see getting good minutes this year too as he compliments the team so well and you have to say that young Calderon kid is one of the best passers of the ball I've seen.
The wing is owned by Shareef who just knows how to make the game look easy and plays tough D.  Again young Tyreke is a really good guy to have on the team and sparks the second unit with Calderon in particular.  We've got Thad and he's looked better than expected and I think he's going to get some time this year and hopefully more moving forward.
Thing I like more than anything else is the chemistry.  Wilt is more chilled but with a look in his eye I didn't see last year when he sometimes seemed to be playing for himself.  It won't be easy but this team has a championship feel about it.













2 comments:

  1. Good grief ... is this blog the UBAS answer to ESPN's "Heat Watch" from a few years back??

    ReplyDelete